BLF

Explicit-Bayes likelihood analysis + online belief update

Drop CFB code, data, and docs — moved to https://github.com/murphyk/cfb

CFB: docs/cfb/{workflow.md, main.tex} + markets-only pool figures

CFB: split run.py into front-end (string parser) + run_base_agent.py

CFB: xid caching + shrink-toward-crowd + source-weighted scoring